Stylometric Analysis in Pauline Letters: A Probabilistic Approach to Text Authenticity

The Pauline letters in the New Testament have long been the subject of in-depth studies in theology, history, and philology. One of the major issues continuously discussed is the authenticity of several letters attributed to Paul, particularly the Pastoral Epistles—1 Timothy, 2 Timothy, and Titus. A comparison of writing style and vocabulary usage in these letters serves as a method to determine whether they were genuinely written by Paul or if they involved contributions from other authors.

Stylometric analysis is employed in this study using a more systematic and probability-based approach. An author's writing style tends to exhibit unique patterns, including word usage, sentence structure, and the frequency of specific linguistic elements. Thus, probability distribution models are applied to measure how distinct the linguistic features of Paul's authentic letters are compared to those of the disputed letters.

Several probabilistic models are used in this analysis, including binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial distributions. The binomial model is used to analyze binary linguistic features, such as the presence or absence of specific words in a verse. Meanwhile, the Poisson distribution is more suitable for measuring rare words or phrases that still follow a discernible pattern in the text. The negative binomial distribution is applied when there is greater variation than can be explained by the Poisson model, which often occurs in text analysis involving a highly variable word count.

Through the application of these models, significant differences in linguistic patterns are observed between Paul's undisputed letters—such as Romans, 1 Corinthians, and Galatians—and the Pastoral Epistles. These differences are not only in the frequency of certain words but also in syntactic structure and sentence complexity. A notable finding is that the Pastoral Epistles tend to use vocabulary more commonly associated with ecclesiastical contexts, differing from Paul's earlier letters, which focus more on theological concepts with distinct terminology.

These differences raise questions about the composition of the Pastoral Epistles. If it is assumed that Paul indeed wrote these letters, then the possibility arises that the editing or copying process by his disciples influenced the writing style and vocabulary used. On the other hand, if the differences are too significant to be explained merely as natural variations in an author's writing, the hypothesis that these letters were authored by someone else gains more credibility.

Analysis of these letters also considers historical and social factors. Paul's undisputed letters were written in the context of an active and challenging missionary effort, where the language reflects the urgency of spreading the Gospel and direct interaction with emerging Christian communities. In contrast, the Pastoral Epistles appear more structured and have a more administrative tone, as if they were meant to regulate the life of a more established church.

Additionally, the distribution of key terms related to doctrine and church organization shows a shift in focus in the Pastoral Epistles compared to Paul's other letters. Certain terms that are rare in earlier letters become more common in the Pastoral Epistles, indicating that these letters may have been composed in a different context. This provides additional insight into the development of the early church and how ecclesiastical authority structures began to take shape in the decades following Paul’s ministry.

While considering the possibility that the Pastoral Epistles were influenced by other authors, caution is necessary in drawing conclusions. Variations in writing style can be influenced by multiple factors, including changes in mood, evolving life experiences, or even shifts in writing techniques as an author ages. Therefore, even though probabilistic analysis indicates significant differences, further studies are required, considering other factors that may contribute to these distinctions.

From a historical perspective, these differences in style and language structure also reflect changes in the needs of the Christian community at the time. Paul's earlier letters focus on doctrinal teaching and inter-community relationships in facing external challenges, whereas the Pastoral Epistles provide more directives on church governance and leadership ethics. Viewing this from the perspective of early Christian community development, such transformations are not surprising, as a growing community requires clearer regulations for church life.

This analysis demonstrates that probabilistic stylometric approaches provide a powerful tool for understanding the differences between Paul's undisputed letters and the Pastoral Epistles. By combining this method with historical and theological studies, it becomes increasingly clear that the New Testament letters are not merely a static collection of texts but part of a complex developmental process within the early Christian community.

Conclusion

Stylometric analysis of Paul's letters using a probabilistic approach reveals significant differences in linguistic patterns between the undisputed letters and the Pastoral Epistles. The use of probability distributions such as binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial allows for the identification of unique stylistic markers. These differences raise questions about the involvement of other authors or editorial processes in composing the Pastoral Epistles. However, the interpretation of these findings must consider historical and social factors that influenced the development of the early Christian community. Further studies combining linguistic, historical, and theological analyses are necessary to gain a better understanding of how these texts were composed and transmitted within ecclesiastical tradition.

References

Herzer, J., 2017. Zwischen Mythos und Wahrheit: Neue Perspektiven auf die sogenannten Pastoralbriefe. New Testament Studies, 63(3), pp.428-450.

Hinlicky, P.R., 1998. Theology of a Martyr: Proclaiming Christ from the Pastoral Epistles Today. Pro ecclesia, 7(3), pp.350-357.

Richards, W.A., 1998. Difference and Distance in Post-Pauline Christianity: An Epistolary Analysis of the Pastorals (Doctoral dissertation).

Sabourin, L., 1973. Book Review: A Commentary of the Pastoral Epistles. Biblical Theology Bulletin, 3(3), pp.332-334.

van Nes, J. and Koning, H., 2017. Motif-Semantic Differences in Paul?: A Question to Advocates of the Pastorals’ Plural Authorship in Dialogue with Michaela Engelmann. Tyndale bulletin, 68(1), pp.73-94.